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- standardAug 6, 2026
Gold and Silver Rally on Soft ADP; Hardware Outperforms Software
Gold and silver rallied sharply on a soft ADP jobs report, while equities remained risk-on with profit taking. The report highlights a structural shift where hardware is outperforming software, and notes key personnel changes at Google.
- standardAug 5, 2026
AI Supply Chain Rips as Market Hits New Highs
The market broke to all-time highs on lower oil, with the AI supply chain surging 5-12% on breakouts from NVDA and AVGO. After-hours, AMD and SpaceX fell despite strong guidance due to capex concerns, though SpaceX's AI buildout payback claims remain bullish. Large-cap growth has flipped back to market driver, suggesting a regime change with legs.
- premiumAug 4, 2026
Hyperscaler Melt-Up, Memory Cut
The market is repricing hyperscalers on moderate capex with strong free cash flow, favoring disciplined spenders like Microsoft and AWS. Memory stocks were sold due to NVIDIA's HBM spec reduction, while the rest of the semi supply chain shows basing action. A potential top in the dollar and long yields, if confirmed, could support risk-on, but oil must fall to $70.
- standardAug 4, 2026
Situational Awareness Liquidation and AI Capex Re-correlation
A major fund's forced liquidation of its entire public book to Citadel marked a local market bottom, with the Nasdaq rising 2.8% and memory stocks surging. Amazon's AWS acceleration and raised capex confirmed AI spending ROI, ending the June-July anti-correlation between hyperscalers and semiconductor stocks.
- standardJul 30, 2026
FOMC Day Ends at Lows as Fed Credibility Questioned; Microsoft Azure Accelerates
Microsoft Azure revenue accelerated to 43% constant-currency growth, crossing $100 billion annually, with commercial RPO reaching $678 billion. The Fed's dovish presser led to a dollar decline, 30-year yield rising to 5.20%, and gold hitting a record $4,143, raising credibility concerns.
- standardJul 30, 2026
Momentum Unwind Presents Buy Dip Opportunity for 2H
The momentum unwind is exhausting, presenting a potential buy dip opportunity for the second half. SK hynix's record Q2 earnings missed the street but met the whisper, with the stock acting like the last shoe dropped. The momentum-valuation model has flipped to a STRONG BUY, and the firm remains bullish on AI capex and hyperscalers.
- standardJul 27, 2026
QQQ Breaks Support Amid AI Capex Concerns and FOMC Uncertainty
QQQ broke key support on Friday due to concerns over AI capex sustainability. Equity futures gapped higher Monday as US-Iran strike pause negotiations began, while lower oil prices reduce the risk of a hawkish FOMC surprise. The market continues to fade strong earnings, with INTC being a prime example, and focus remains on hyperscaler capex and ROI this week.
- standardJul 24, 2026
Capex Punishment Regime and Tariff-Oil Shock Analysis
The market is punishing companies that raise capital expenditures, with Alphabet and Tesla declining sharply while semiconductor equipment stocks rally. Tariff and oil shocks are pressing beta, with the US 10-year yield at 4.71% and rate hike expectations rising. Retail bearishness is seen as a contrarian buy signal.
- premiumJul 23, 2026
GOOGL Cloud Accelerates to 82% Growth; Capex Raised to $195-205B
GOOGL's cloud revenue grew 82% to $24.8B, with a ~$100B run-rate and improving margins on a ~$500B backlog. The company raised 2026 capex by $15B to $195-205B and flagged further growth for 2027, while planning to use third-party capacity in Q3 due to constraints. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield broke out to 4.67% as Brent surged on geopolitical tensions, but gold rallied, suggesting reserve rotation rather than inflation panic.
- standardJul 22, 2026
Semiconductor Squeeze and AI Demand Surge
The semiconductor sector experienced a sharp rally, driven by a short squeeze and surging DRAM pricing. SK Hynix's reported acquisition of Intel's Ohio campus signals increased US memory production. Upcoming Alphabet earnings are expected to show higher capex and cloud revenue acceleration.
- standardJul 20, 2026
Korea Margin Deleveraging Late Stage; AI Capex Demand Intact
The KOSPI fell 4.46% on domestic margin mechanics, while other Asian markets stabilized. Meta and Anthropic are discussing a $10B compute lease, and memory spot prices show a 146% premium over contract, indicating tightening AI demand.
- standardJul 17, 2026
TSMC Beat and Raise: AI Capex Cycle Strengthens Amid Systematic Selling
TSMC reported record profits and raised its 2026 capital budget to $60-64B, yet the stock sold off 2.3% due to systematic flows. The equipment complex shows clean fundamental strength, and the release of the Kimi K3 frontier model by Moonshot highlights token deflation driving further buildout. Market broadening, with sectors like healthcare and staples rising, supports a bullish intermediate-term outlook.
- standardJul 15, 2026
Dovish Inflation Fuels AI Rotation: Memory Flush, Platforms Surge
A second straight dovish inflation print triggered a rotation out of memory stocks into mega-cap platforms, with Apple hitting an all-time high after Beijing approved Apple Intelligence using Alibaba's Qwen. The memory sector saw a record-volume flush, while the model war escalated with major open-source releases from SpaceXAI and Thinking Machines, alongside reports of cheap Chinese models matching US labs.
- standardJul 15, 2026
Memory Stocks Surge on CPI and Deleveraging; IBM Plunges
Memory stocks rallied sharply as June CPI came in flat month-over-month, removing the July rate hike from consideration. SKHY surged 27.3% to a new high, surpassing Micron in market cap, while IBM fell 25% after a pre-announcement citing client budget shifts toward memory. The report notes continued strength in AI-capex and expects regrossing.
- premiumJul 12, 2026
Market Regains Momentum; SKHY Debut Validates AI-Capex Trade
The market is emerging from a rotational period, with volatility declining and indices returning to uptrends. SK Hynix's ADR listing traded through its offer price, validating the AI-capex trade alongside Nvidia's breakout. The report adds SKHY and DRAM positions while exiting EWY.
- standardJul 10, 2026
AI Trade Re-Risked: Hynix Premium, Meta Rally, Model War Intensifies
SK Hynix's US listing priced at a premium with strong demand, confirming the memory flow story. Meta surged 9.7% after launching a new coding model and announcing an in-house AI chip, reinforcing the AI adopter trade. The model war expanded with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 and Grok 4.5, boosting compute demand.
- standardJul 9, 2026
Tech and Energy Lead as Hedge Fund Degrossing Exhausted
SK Hynix's $29B ADR offering was more than seven times oversubscribed, leading to a reversal in semiconductor names that had been sold to fund allocations. The US strikes on Iranian ports and Trump's ceasefire declaration have provided a floor for oil prices, supporting the AI capex trade. With hedge fund leverage reduced, a gradual recovery rally is expected post Hynix debut.
- standardJul 8, 2026
Nasdaq Falls Below 50-Day on Iran and Korea Shocks; Volatility Expected into Hynix Debut
The Nasdaq fell below its 50-day moving average after two shocks: a re-ignited Iran war and Korea's memory supply event. The mid-session revocation of the Iranian oil waiver drove the 30-year yield through 5.00% on an oil bounce, while Samsung fell on a revenue miss despite record profit. SK Hynix's $29.4B Nasdaq ADR is forcing mechanical selling across Micron, SanDisk, and Samsung that expires when the deal clears.
- standardJul 4, 2026
Soft Payrolls, Two Markets: The AI De-Rate Meets Its First Rebuttal
Payrolls missed badly — +57k against +115k, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.2% only because participation collapsed — and the July hike died with it; yet the AI complex kept de-rating anyway, which is the session's real message: this unwind runs on capex doubt, not rates. The tape split in two — the Dow +1.14%
- standardJul 2, 2026
Meta Compute and AI Infra: Unwind or Opportunity?
The recent selloff in semiconductors and momentum stocks is driven by Meta's hyperscaler announcement, which the market misreads as a capex concern. We view it as a leveraged position unwind, not a fundamental shift, as Meta's move improves ROI justification for sustained spending. Positive July seasonality and improving breadth support buying the dip in AI infrastructure.
- premiumJul 1, 2026
AI Capex Trade Ends Volatile June on High Note
Semiconductor and industrial stocks led a rally as SK Hynix signs uncapped supply agreements at 50% higher prices and Korea's June chip exports surge nearly 200%. Bloom Energy and Brookfield expand AI-infrastructure partnership five-fold to $25 billion. A bond selloff following a hot JOLTS print weighed on broader markets, while new lows in Bitcoin and gold reflect mixed sentiment.
- standardJun 29, 2026
Tech Unwind and AI Capex Debate: Jevons Paradox in Play
Last week's tech selloff was extreme but driven by quarter-end rebalancing and profit-taking, not a structural break. The debate centers on AI capex ROI and competition from Chinese models, but Jevons paradox suggests cheaper compute expands the total market, benefiting semis and infrastructure. We maintain long positions in high-visibility memory and semicap names with short duration.
- standardJun 26, 2026
Memory-Led Rally Unwinds on Demand Destruction Fears
The memory trade that led the recent rally is unwinding sharply, with Korea's KOSPI halted twice and falling ~7-8% as SK Hynix and Samsung gave back post-Micron gains. The selloff was triggered by Apple's price hikes and a 6% drop, raising demand destruction concerns for consumer electronics. However, the report views this as a quarter-end rebalance flush, noting that data center demand remains intact with significant long-term contracts.
- premiumJun 25, 2026
Micron Earnings Confirm AI Super-Cycle; Market Tests 50dMA
Micron reported record gross margins and guided Q4 well above consensus, with supply tight beyond 2027. Qualcomm and Meta partnered on data-center CPUs, while Nvidia's annual meeting highlighted a multi-decade cycle. Yields fell across the curve despite strong data, signaling disinflation and a Fed hold.
- premiumJun 24, 2026
Forced Deleveraging in Korea Creates Semi/AI Dip Opportunity
A forced deleveraging in Korea triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductors and AI stocks, but internal market breadth improved with seven of eleven sectors closing higher. The equal-weight index barely moved and the 2-year yield fell, indicating a growth-scare bid for duration rather than a hawkish repricing. Key capital raises from SK Hynix and SpaceX underscore ongoing AI infrastructure investment.
- standardJun 19, 2026
AI Compute and Power Lead Post-FOMC Bounce
AI compute and custom silicon stocks rallied after the FOMC meeting, driven by a KeyBanc target raise for Marvell and Meta's capacity deal with Crusoe data centers. Power utilities also gained as the build-out's electricity demand became a key trade.
- premiumJun 18, 2026
Warsh's Hawkish FOMC and US-Iran MOU: AI Capex Focus
Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting was surprisingly hawkish, leading to a bear flattening of the yield curve and a shift toward short-duration earnings quality. The US-Iran MOU at Versailles reopened the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude to fall, though oil downside is seen as limited. The report details a portfolio rotation from software into AI compute and power names.